The country isn’t collapsing under the weight of competing separatist projects. Rather, it’s quietly dissolving under the acids of institutional unraveling, political incoherence, and a growing sense that regional interests and identities are more important than any sense of “Canadianness.” The problem, therefore, is not one of a dramatic crisis. It’s more one of incremental balkanization. Provinces aren’t formally breaking away from the Canadian confederation. Rather, they’re just increasingly doing their own thing – irrespective of Ottawa and the national vision that that city represents.

What’s emerging is a federation in name only. Provincial governments across the country are increasingly asserting autonomy on major policy files without federal coordination or even acknowledgment. This is not rhetorical separatism or symbolic posturing. It’s administrative sovereignty by default. And it is happening in real time.

Alberta offers the most direct example. The Alberta Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act was originally dismissed by national commentators as a political stunt. It isn’t. The Conservative government of Danielle Smith has used it to reject or sidestep federal regulations on firearms, natural resources, and climate assessments. The province is effectively testing the boundaries of Canadian federalism—and finding little resistance.

This isn’t secessionist theater. It’s the operationalization of a political worldview: that Ottawa no longer adds value. Alberta’s leadership is behaving as if the province’s future will be determined in Edmonton, not in the capital. Public opinion reflects this posture. Consistent polling puts support for Alberta independence between 35 and 45 percent—not as a protest, but as a fallback position. The sentiment is not driven by rage, but by a growing perception that the federation is misaligned with Alberta’s interests.