One of the big questions about the Trump phenomenon is this — is it actually just a Trump phenomenon, or is it a movement? That is, is the movement based on personality, or is it based on a deeper seated desire to, I dunno, make America great again that goes beyond support for Trump himself?

If it’s a personality-based movement, then it’s unlikely to bring lasting change. A respite, maybe, as the leftist attempt to gather all strands of social power into the hands of the blob is set back and defunded, but only a respite, as the leftists never give up on trying to gather all strands of social power. Gleichschaltung isn’t just a pretty word, as Morticia Addams might say.

If it’s a deeper-rooted movement, though, it’s likely to have a major impact. A lot of voters are unhappy with how things have been going, but they’ll have to build an infrastructure, and a movement, that will outlast Trump. Trump is 78 now; he’ll be 82 when he leaves office, and even if he keeps an active hand in politics, I very much doubt he’ll have influence for long. (Though Obama was basically ruling from behind the scenes for the entire Biden Administration.)

The real test, or at least one real test, of this phenomenon will be the coming special elections in Wisconsin and Florida. A lot of people are saying that Trump voters only turn out to vote for Trump. If those elections go badly for the GOP, that will be a sign that Trump’s appeal is the main driver of Republican victories, which would be bad news for long-term change because his impact is time-limited. On X, Scott Pressler was sounding a bit discouraged a few days ago about Republican get out the vote efforts in those races, though it sounds like maybe things are going better now.