In his first week back in office, President Trump removed the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord, ended restrictions on LNG exports, and bolstered the hydrocarbon industry in Alaska and nationally. Predictably, this has led left-of-center environmentalists to decry an existential climate emergency.

When the Elon Musk-led so called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is added to the mix, the concern grows that legislative incentives and funding bills like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) or Infrastructure Investments and Jobs Act (IIJA) will be clawed back or rescinded. The upshot of all of this, according to the fearmongers, is that we are doomed to years of climate regression.

I predict the opposite. I believe that by 2030, the impact of this administration will be less carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases. The simple reason: innovation.

Historical context only underscores why this is likely. While CO2 emissions grew in the U.S. for a century, they peaked in 2005-2007 and for the last two decades have been on the decline. This conspicuous timing aligns not with a grand climate commitment but the revolution in hydraulic fracturing and the increased share of natural gas in the energy mix.