Very few people predicted that a long, high-intensity war in Europe was possible in the twenty-first century. But for three bloody years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has delivered exactly that. Hundreds of thousands of Russians and Ukrainians have died in the fighting. Many more have been injured. Entire towns have been reduced to ruin or cut apart by trenches, in a grim callback to World War I.

Now, the war in Ukraine has reached an apparent stasis. Russia continues to take small parcels of territory along the eastern front, but only by incurring unsustainably high casualties. The two countries have achieved parity when it comes to their long-range strike capabilities. Both have become fully mobilized war nations, allowing Russia to bounce back from its initial failures and allowing Ukraine, a smaller country, to keep fighting on through grievous losses. In the immediate future, then, the frontlines are likely to remain relatively stagnant. There will be no major breakthroughs.

U.S. President Donald Trump, however, has promised to end the war, reaching out to Moscow and setting up negotiations between American and Russian officials. In theory, these talks could turn 2025 into a decisive year for conflict. But there is no reason to think that interventions by Washington’s new sheriff will prove transformative, especially given that Kyiv has been frozen out of the conversation. The Trump administration is already discovering that the complexities of this conflict will preclude quick solutions. Trump has acceded to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demand that Ukraine be locked out of NATO and Russia granted a sphere of influence. But Putin has given nothing in return, retaining his maximalist demands about Ukrainian disarmament and subjugation. The result could lead Washington to walk away and resume support for Kyiv.