As I have written elsewhere, I have always been suspicious of the idea of an emerging multipolar world order. This does not mean that it will never happen, but there is a difference between inevitable and imminent. At the time of writing the United States are reasserting their role as the primary superpower with breathtaking speed, and instead of counterbalancing US power by the rest of the world we see acquiescing to the demands of Washington. It all began just a few days ago with Colombian President Gustavo Petro refusing to accept deportees from the United States. Going on social media during a game of golf, Trump announced a massive tariff increase on Colombian imports as well as visa restrictions on government officials, forcing Bogota to back down within hours. 

The next countries on Trump’s list were Canada and Mexico. There have been long time claims that Canadian authorities are too lenient in issuing visas which can then be used to travel to the United States, something that runs counter to the new administration’s tough stance on immigration. Also, unbeknownst to many, Canada has become as crucial transit country for the fentanyl trade. “If we are your biggest trading partner, show us the respect,” Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary nominee, said in his confirmation hearings last week. “Shut your border and end fentanyl coming into this country.” The perceived unwillingness by the current Canadian government led to the imposition of a series of tariffs, which the government in Ottawa vowed to reciprocate.

But can they? Exports to the US make up 22 per cent of Canada’s GDP, while US exports to Canada are only 1.5 per cent of US GDP. The situation is even worse from the Mexican perspective: 35 per cent vs. 1.2 per cent. And it does not stop there. Due to cancelled pipeline projects thanks to environmental activists, in order to get oil from Western to Eastern Canada it has to pass across US territory, plus there is a dependency on US refining capacity.