The momentum in Britain’s July 2024 general election lay not with Labour—whose victory was shallow, brought about only by the total collapse of the Tories—but with Reform UK. Now Nigel Farage’s upstart party is surging in the opinion polls, and even the liberal media has been forced to stop sneering at the idea that Farage could win the next parliamentary elections, due by 2029.

Barely six months after the dullest UK general election campaign in memory, the rise of Reform UK threatens to bring boring British politics to life. It is a sure sign that no corner of Europe is now immune to the populist revolt against the old political establishment.

In July, Reform, contesting its first-ever general election, won just over four million votes—14.3% of the total. That translated into only five Members of Parliament—less than one per cent of the total seats—due to the UK electoral system. Now Reform is regularly polling well over 20 per cent, in a three-way contest with Labour and the Conservatives—and the polls probably underestimate its support.

The dynamic is clearly with Farage, who recently revealed the remarkable fact that Reform’s membership has now topped that of the Tory Party. As he put it, “The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world. Reform UK are now the real opposition.”