The last few weeks have seen lots of chatter about the prospects for a US-UK free trade deal under the forthcoming Trump administration. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is reportedly prioritising better trade ties as a potential fix for Britain’s economic growth woes. Labour figures have claimed that David Lammy has a good relationship with JD Vance, in a hint that he may have the juice to help deliver such an agreement as foreign secretary. 

Robert Greenway, former deputy assistant to the president on Trump’s National Security Council, also raised hopes for a deal, telling Politico: “I think it’s in both of our interests to do so”. There has also been speculation that Trump’s support for Brexit would dispose him favourably to a trade deal with a post-Brexit UK. 

Although there are concerns that Trump’s tariffs and the installation of vaccine and pharmaceutical-sceptic Robert F Kennedy Jr at the Department of Health and Human Services could end up hammering British drug-making giants, there is also a sense that, because the UK’s trade balance is far tighter, and largely centred on the services sector, it could dodge anti-trade measures under the new administration. Many have also argued – correctly, in my view – that Trump looks at the UK more favourably than President Biden does. (Trump’s mother emigrated to the United States from Scotland, and he owns plenty of property there).

And yet, Trump’s return to the presidency could also work out very badly for a Britain led by the Labour Party. Trump does indeed love tariffs and his administration will promulgate much less Big Pharma-friendly policy than Biden’s has. Labour also appears to have let go a key trade negotiator who might have actually been well-placed to get a deal over the finish line.