After a month in which Kamala Harris was shot to the top of the ticket by her party elites, and in which she did no substantive interviews, she was clearly leading. She then spent a month introducing herself to the public. This was her big mistake. Thereby she fell backwards into a dead heat as Americans concluded she’d be better off not speaking.

The contrasts multiply from there. Trump has sometimes been overconfident and overfamiliar. He trusts voters to know when he’s kidding, and for his opponents to humourlessly pretend not to know when he’s kidding. (“I won’t be a dictator, except for day one.”) In the final weeks, Trump has been campaigning as if he anticipates a win. He has spread his events to Wisconsin and states that would normally be a longer reach for him, such as New Hampshire. He and his running mate, JD Vance, have been reaching deep into new media, going on comedy podcasts. Harris, by contrast, is one of the most deeply insecure candidates ever thrust into the spotlight.