Four leading media polls have the race as a composite statistical tie nationally, a data point that is generally more favorable to Democrats because of the wide voter registration advantage in the largest states of California (54 Electoral College votes), New York (28), and Illinois (19).

The RealClear Politics polling average has Trump ahead by a fraction of a percentage point (plus 0.2%), with three of the most recent polls at NBC News, Emerson College, and TIPP all having the race as a statistical tie. The ABC News/Ipsos poll has Harris leading just outside the margin of error, while Atlas Intel's poll has Trump as a 1.8-point leader, just inside the margin of error.