Castellanos: Here's What the Pollsters Missed

'I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. They are all missing something because they're giving us the same poll over and over again', [Alex Castellanos] said.

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'What I think they are missing is a massive shift in voter registration underneath all of this. 

'31 states have voter registration by party, 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement towards Republicans.

'Yet we are getting these surveys that are off base. I'm not going to call it a wave but I think there's a "wavelet" out there of Republican enthusiasm in registration.'  

Ed Morrissey

I agree with this, and have mentioned it a few times. The Gallup split shifted eight points in the gap since 2020 from a D+5 to an R+3. There's no way of reading that as anything other than a signal of voter intent in this election, and a leading indicator of voter enthusiasm. 

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