While Republicans maintain GOP Sen. Ted Cruz is ahead in the mid-single digits, Democrats believe Rep. Colin Allred is running even with the incumbent. A Democrat hasn’t won statewide in more than 30 years, but Allred is still in the hunt in the closing days. Inside Elections changed the rating of the race from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican, one step closer to Toss-up.
I really don't see much in public polling to justify this. I get asked about this a lot from people, but in RCP's aggregation, only one poll suggests that the race is within the MoE, and that was a Cruz +1 two weeks ago from The Hill/Emerson. The latest three polls shows Cruz up 4, including a new NYT/Siena poll of 1180 likely voters, 50/46. Roll Call and Inside Elections appear to be vibing more than basing this on data.
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