Last Friday’s newsletter, “Republican irrational exuberance?” explored the fact that many Republicans believe Trump has the election in the bag and that it might not even be close. Yes, there are signs that the race shifted a little in Trump’s favor about three weeks ago. On Thursday, after trailing for a long time, Trump has a tiny lead, 0.4 points, in the aforementioned Real Clear Politics average of polls. That is an inconsequential advantage, but when Republicans look at where Trump stood at this moment in both 2016, when he was 1.3 points behind Hillary Clinton, and 2020, when he was 7.4 points behind Joe Biden, they find cause for optimism.

Still, it’s tied. And just looking around will show you an intensity on Harris’s side that appears to match the intensity on Trump’s.