Once reliably Republican, Arizona is up for grabs. The state has toggled between the parties in the past two presidential elections, voting for Joe Biden (narrowly) and for Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly (more comfortably) in 2020, after voting for Donald Trump (narrowly) and for Republican Senate incumbent John McCain (more comfortably) in 2016. This November, the state’s electoral results may hinge on which candidate better addresses voters’ economic and public-order concerns. ...
Pundits often dismiss concerns about crime and inflation by citing recent declines in both indictors. They miss the point: voters care about real levels, not rates of change. When consumers go to the grocery store, they notice that bread today is much more expensive than it was five years ago; it’s little comfort that the price isn’t going up as rapidly as before. Likewise, even if crime rates are down year-over-year, people know that total crime remains higher than before the 2020 spike.
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