NEW: CNN Poll Shows Straight-Up Tie, 47/47

Harris has a narrow edge with independents (45% Harris to 41% Trump), and both candidates carry more than 90% of their own partisans (93% of Democrats back Harris, 92% of Republicans favor Trump).

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Harris holds the advantage over Trump among women (50% Harris to 44% Trump), younger voters (51% Harris to 41% Trump among voters younger than 35), and voters of color, including Black likely voters (79% Harris to 13% Trump) and Hispanic likely voters (54% Harris to 37% Trump). Suburban voters break in Harris’ direction (52% Harris to 44% Trump), with her edge there fueled largely by suburban women, who break 55% Harris to 41% Trump; suburban men split almost evenly.

Trump, meanwhile, has a lead with men (51% Trump to 45% Harris), White likely voters (55% Trump to 41% Harris), rural voters (64% Trump to 31% Harris) and those who say they did not cast a ballot in 2020 (50% Trump to 40% Harris).

Ed Morrissey

Those numbers don't make a lot of sense. Trump actually edges Harris in the gender gap, wins new voters by ten points, and gets 13% of the likely black voters ... and it's a tie? 

At any rate, a tie is not good news for Democrats. A tie means Trump may win the popular vote, but he's almost certain to be leading in the Electoral College. On this date in 2020, Biden led the RCP aggregate national polls by eight points; in 2016, Clinton led by just over five. She went on to win the popular vote by three points but lost all three blue-wall states. If this race is really a tie in national polling, Kamala Harris is in deep trouble. 

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