Considering the heavy-handed way in which Israel responded to Hamas’s October 7 massacre and to ongoing provocations by Hezbollah, Iran is playing an extremely dangerous game. So far, Israel’s attacks on Iran have been measured and limited. The Biden administration has gone to great lengths to ensure Israel doesn’t respond to Iranian attacks in a way that will cause a significant escalation, which means ruling out attacks on nuclear facilities and oil sites.

However, an Iranian — or Iranian-backed — assassination of the Israeli prime minister (or other senior figure) would change the game completely. If this happens, Iran could discover the full force of the Israeli army.