The recent electoral advances made by Austria’s Freedom Party (FPÖ) and Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) once again show conservative populists are a political force to be reckoned with. They also demonstrate the current limitations of that force if it continues to be primarily a purely oppositional movement.

Conservative populist parties and leaders always draw from the same demographic base: less educated, middle-aged citizens who tend to work with their hands. That was first evident in the United States’ 2016 election, where Donald Trump conquered the Republican Party by drawing on this demographic, and in the United Kingdom’s 2016 Brexit referendum which also surged to victory with these voters.

This model was clearly demonstrated in the recent German state and Austrian elections. The FPÖ, for example, did best with voters aged 35-59, those without an academic secondary school degree (keine Matura), and workers. The AfD in the Brandenburg state election attracted a similar demographic: voters with lower education, those aged 25-59, and workers (Arbeiter).