It’s been ten long weeks since Donald Trump was shot at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. When the Republican presidential candidate rose from the stage, bloodied, fist raised, yelling “Fight” to his supporters, he seemed invincible. 

Not only had he dodged death, he looked set for victory come November. “We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency,” one senior House Democrat told Axios just hours after the assassination attempt. 

A lot has changed since then—most importantly Trump’s opponent—and rather than holding an unassailable lead, he is in the middle of a dogfight for the White House. What happened? Part of the story is of a Democratic Party pulling itself together, ditching its senescent candidate, and falling into line behind Kamala Harris. But the other part concerns Donald Trump himself, and the campaign he has chosen to run.