Drug-related deaths in the United States—which have risen nearly every year for the last two decades, often by double-digit percentages—are expected to fall substantially this year. According to preliminary data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the death toll for the 12-month period ending in April 2024 was 101,168, compared to 112,470 for the 12-month period ending in April 2023. That 10 percent drop, assuming it holds up, is striking when compared to the previous trend.

Since the CDC is still reporting more than 100,000 drug-related deaths a year, compared to 20,000 or so at the turn of the century, it would be premature to celebrate. The current numbers, in fact, are still substantially higher than the death toll recorded in 2020, when drug-related fatalities surged by a record 30 percent. Still, a double-digit annual decrease would be unprecedented and may signal the beginning of a long-awaited reversal in ever-escalating drug fatalities, especially in light of the more modest 3 percent drop between 2022 and 2023.

There are several possible explanations for this development, some more plausible than others. But the bottom line is that no one really knows why this is happening now, although it is clear that we cannot credit the efforts of politicians who have been risibly promising to "stop the flow of illicit drugs" for more than a century.