The debate surrounding the purported increase in natural disasters due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been a cornerstone of the climate crisis narrative for decades. However, a thorough examination of the data from sources like the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) shows globally reported natural disasters from 1970 to 2024 reveal a more nuanced reality. Upon closer inspection, the claim that increasing GHGs are responsible for an uptick in natural disasters appears increasingly tenuous, if not outright false.

No Observable Increase in Natural Disasters Since 2000

The EM-DAT data, as illustrated by the figure below, shows a notable rise in the number of reported natural disasters from the 1970s to around 1999. However, after this point, the trend plateaus, with no substantial increase observed in the frequency of natural disasters up to 2024. This is critical because it contradicts the mainstream narrative that ties the rise of natural disasters directly to increasing GHG concentrations.

Since 2000, there has been a dramatic increase in CO2 emissions, driven largely by industrial growth in emerging economies like China and India. Indeed, more CO2 has been added to the atmosphere in the past two decades than in any previous period in human history. According to the climate crisis narrative, this should have led to a corresponding increase in extreme weather events and natural disasters. However, the data clearly show otherwise.