The Times’ Nate Cohn and his colleagues have published the first high-quality survey since Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden on the ticket that suggests the VP’s hot streak may be coming to an end, according to an analysis by Politico of the polling.

The Times poll, like any single poll, we’ll have to wait to see if it’s validated by other research in the coming days. The debate on Tuesday could also scramble things in some new way, so we don’t want to read too much into this morning’s numbers.

But Cohn, who says “the result is a bit surprising,” offers some wise analysis about why the poll may be a leading indicator of “a reversion back toward” Trump:

1. Trump remains popular,with a 46 percent approval rating — which is better than where he stood in either of his last two presidential campaigns.
2. Trump has the edge over Harris when voters were asked generally which candidate is better on whatever was their top issue.