Fed's Fave Inflation Indicator at 2.6%

Inflation edged higher in July, according to a measure favored by the Federal Reserve as the central bank prepares to enact its first interest rate reduction in more than four years.

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The Commerce Department reported Friday that the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.2% on the month and was up 2.5% from the same period a year ago, exactly in line with the Dow Jones consensus estimates.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core PCE also increased 0.2% for the month but was up 2.6% from a year ago. The 12-month figure was slightly softer than the 2.7% estimate.


Ed Morrissey

The PCE index is their benchmark, and this level is still just a skosh higher than the Fed likes. At this point, though, the die is cast on a rate cut. They'll accept this as sufficiently controlled inflation to ease up on monetary discipline, and take a gamble that it won't create an inflationary reaction. 

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