It appears likely that Hezbollah will indeed conclude that sufficient revenge has been exacted for the loss of Shukr. This is because, as is becoming increasingly clear, the movement and its patrons in Tehran very much wish to avoid being drawn into a conventional conflict with Israel and its allies at the present time. The killings of Haniyeh and Shukr, indeed appear to have constituted a kind of bluff-calling by Israel, in which the Jewish state sought by escalation to break the pattern of slow attritional warfare preferred by Iran and its allies.

From this perspective, Israel may record a notable achievement. The current round indicates that Jerusalem can hit prestige targets, senior officials of the enemy side, in the very heart of enemy territory, while paying only a limited and symbolic price by way of retribution. Indeed, yesterdays’ events appear to indicate that Israel can even use the enemy’s preparations for retaliation in order to carry out additional telling strikes of its own.