Today's update. 2nd straight mediocre polling day for Harris. In the range where it could be noise, but her lead in our national polling average has been trimmed to 2.4 points from 3.1.https://t.co/vsGVG18HHI pic.twitter.com/r5rf4hLPa4

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 16, 2024

A second straight day of gains for Trump with some mediocre polling for Harris; her lead in our national polling average is down to 2.4 points from a peak of 3.1. It’s too early to say whether there’s been some turn in momentum or if this is just statistical noise and in any event, Harris will have a chance to refresh her momentum at the DNC next week, but the vibes aren’t as good as they were a week ago.