The Logic of Ukraine's Kursk Offensive

The Kursk offensive is unlikely to penetrate far. Although flying columns have driven another twenty miles along highways to threaten the small town of Korenevo north-west of Sudzha and the village of Anastas’evka to the north, the prospects of further progress to such targets as Kursk city or the Kursk nuclear power plant (some fifty and forty miles further, respectively) seem unlikely. Nonetheless, Putin has been forced to declare a state of emergency in the Kursk region, apoplectic “turbo-patriot” online commentators are calling for generals’ heads and the state propagandists are desperately trying to square this attack with their complacent assessments of a week ago. Already, the official media has declared victory six times, yet the incursion continues. Once again, a nimble Ukraine has wrong-footed ponderous Russia.

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Yet does this really matter? Time will tell if it was a sensible gamble or not, but those Strykers could have been put to good use in the desperate defense of such Donbas bastions as Chasyv Yar, and already the Ukrainians are losing men and materiel. Taking villages against scattered light forces taken unawares is also a great deal more straightforward that holding them, especially as Russian airpower and Lancet loitering munitions start to take their toll on Ukraine’s supply lines. Call it audacity or call its desperation, but the attack clearly demonstrates that Kyiv felt the need to change the narrative.

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