Despite Democrats’ improving morale, elections analyst and political commentator Nate Silver’s model still suggests that Republican nominee Donald Trump is the favorite to win this year’s presidential election.
According to the model, Trump has 61.3% of winning the Electoral College while Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has just a 38.1% chance of prevailing. The model works by running 40,000 simulations of the election based on current polling trends as well as other underlying factors.
The model also found, however, that Harris is narrowly favored (53.5%) to win the popular vote, as Democrats have in the two previous elections in which Trump was the GOP standard bearer.
“Harris is a popular vote favorite and an Electoral College underdog—but much less of an underdog than Biden,” observed Silver on X (formerly Twitter).
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