Given these tectonic shifts, it would be easy to think that nearly everything has changed. After all, Donald Trump has not only weathered the blowback from the Jan. 6 riot as well as the criminal indictments and conviction, but he’s emerged in the past few months as a politically stronger candidate with a largely unified Republican Party behind him. Meanwhile, after staring into the jaws of defeat and forcing Biden out of the race, the Democrats seem poised for a major reset, with a much younger candidate who not only has a different gender and race from the president, but a different political temperament as well.

But things may not be as different as they seem. That’s because certain essential factors that have been driving the race up to this point are unlikely to change between now and Election Day.