We had been giving Biden the benefit of the doubt in Michigan, keeping it as Leans Democratic even though polling there has been close for months. But we really can’t justify giving Biden an edge there now, even though we do still expect it to be the bluest part of the “Blue Wall” trio (the group of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). With Michigan as a Toss-up, it also makes sense to downgrade Minnesota from Likely Democratic to Leans Democratic. Powered by Democratic growth in the Twin Cities and its suburbs that has mostly counterbalanced a Republican trend in outstate areas, Minnesota is the second-bluest Midwest state, trailing only Illinois. But Trump almost won Minnesota in 2016 and it’s just one shade bluer, not two shades bluer, than Michigan (hence why it should be just Leans Democratic in our ratings if Michigan is a Toss-up). Just to be clear, Biden has zero plausible paths to the White House without Michigan (and of course Minnesota).

These are moves that we could have made in our round of updates a few weeks ago, or, realistically, before then as well. But as we said, we were working off an assumption that this election would be just as nip and tuck as 2016 and 2020 were, collectively, in the key states. In questioning that assumption, we thought it was reasonable to downgrade Biden’s position further, although we’re just taking electoral votes away from Biden in our ratings for now, not adding any more to Trump’s total.