Virginia, electorally, is an odd place. Populated by Beltway bureaucrats close to Washington D.C., but still rural in many areas, the state is often a sea of red with highly concentrated blue islands.

One only has to look at the breakdown in voting during the last gubernatorial election – won by Glenn Youngkin over Terry McAuliffe – to see just how this plays out. In that 2021 contest, counties with bigger cities are heavily blue, while the rest of the state runs red. And since the election of Youngkin, the state has been in flux. In November 2023, the entire state legislature was up for grabs – and it did not go well for Republicans, as Democrats ended up with narrow majorities in both houses.

But now, it’s 2024. The stakes are changing yet again, and instead of state races, the focus in Virginia is on the congressional ones, and the Senate primary. Not to mention the current state of the presidential polls in Virginia. Remember, Joe Biden won Virginia by ten points in 2020. It wasn’t close. So what do things look like now?