15 Battleground Counties Key to the 2024 Presidential Election

The presidential election officially is decided by the states through the Electoral College. But to fully understand the race’s dynamics, it also helps to look one level down – at counties.

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That’s what U.S. News has done through a series examining 15 battleground counties that could prove key in this year’s race for the White House.

Eleven of the 15 counties are located in the seven presidential swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – on the logic that a county’s electoral leverage is greater when it sits in the most competitive states. Three of the remaining four counties are in large states that are on the periphery of competitiveness – Florida and Texas – and one county is in a category all its own because it sits in Nebraska, which allocates some of its electoral votes by congressional district.

Ed Morrissey

It's an interesting dive into the data, and it's also very familiar territory for me. I did a similar analysis in my 2016 book Going Red. Jacobson expands his work to 15 swing counties rather than my seven, but two of them are the same -- Brown County, WI and Wake County, NC. We'll need more data, and hopefully a closer look at the people of these communities, but this is the kind of framework by which both parties should be structuring their strategies. 

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