Given the "election interference" framing, it is easy to lose sight of what this case is actually about: 11 invoices from Cohen, 11 corresponding checks, and 12 ledger entries—"just 34 pieces of paper," as Todd Blanche, the lead defense attorney, described them. Prosecutors say those documents were falsified because they mischaracterized Trump's reimbursement of Cohen. But to justify felony charges, they had to prove that Trump was not merely trying to hide an embarrassing transaction. They had to prove that he was trying to cover up or assist "another crime."

What crime? "The primary crime that we have alleged," Colangelo told Merchan before the jury returned to the courtroom on April 23, "is New York State Election Law Section 17-152″—a provision so obscure that experts say they have never seen a criminal case based on it. That law makes it a misdemeanor for "any two or more persons" to "conspire to promote or prevent the election of any person to a public office by unlawful means."

The "unlawful means," according to prosecutors, was Cohen's payment to Daniels, which amounted to an excessive campaign contribution. Cohen accepted that characterization in a 2018 federal plea agreement that also resolved several other, unrelated charges against him. But Trump was never prosecuted for soliciting that "contribution," probably because it would have been hard to prove that he "knowingly and willfully" violated federal campaign finance regulations. If Trump thought the nondisclosure agreement with Daniels was perfectly legal, as his lawyers maintain, he did not have the intent required for a conviction under the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA).