Poll: It's the Economy and Immigration, Stupid -- Not Abortion

When Arizona and Florida attracted the national spotlight over their abortion battles, this question arose: Would the issue upend the presidential contests in those states — or offset the drag on President Biden that inflation and the border have had on him nationally? 

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And the answer, right now, is no. Biden trails in Arizona by 5 points despite winning it last time, and Trump is comfortably up by 9 points in Florida, after winning it twice in the last two cycles.

Because despite broad support for abortion rights in both states, that effect doesn't all accrue to Mr. Biden — or hurt Trump — as much as people's views on finances and immigration shape the contests. 

Ed Morrissey

Ironically, the damage to Biden on immigration mainly comes from Hispanic voters, to whom Biden intended to pander with his open-border policies. Meanwhile, Biden keeps focusing on abortion when only half of the electorate in battleground states consider it a "major factor" in the election -- and closer to four out of five are focused on inflation and the economy. They're clearly not getting suckered by Biden's gaslighting on either issue, either.

One interesting point to note in Arizona is the way Trump is outperforming Kari Lake. He's up five while she's trailing by thirteen. Arizona is still a purple state, in other words, but bad candidates are going to fail there regardless of which way the wind blows in a particular cycle. 

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