When Arizona and Florida attracted the national spotlight over their abortion battles, this question arose: Would the issue upend the presidential contests in those states — or offset the drag on President Biden that inflation and the border have had on him nationally?
And the answer, right now, is no. Biden trails in Arizona by 5 points despite winning it last time, and Trump is comfortably up by 9 points in Florida, after winning it twice in the last two cycles.
Because despite broad support for abortion rights in both states, that effect doesn't all accrue to Mr. Biden — or hurt Trump — as much as people's views on finances and immigration shape the contests.
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