Will it matter? Try to name a general election debate since Nixon faced Kennedy that may have decided a presidential outcome. Perhaps Reagan and Carter in 1980. Most of the time, debate results are indecisive. Partisans retreat to their corners. Incumbents do poorly in the first debate—George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Donald Trump—then slowly recover. Last-minute events have more significance.
I didn't expect debates in 2024. It seemed to me that there was too much risk involved for both Biden and Trump. Nor is there a mandate of heaven for presidential debates. But the two candidates calculate risk differently—that's probably why they are presidents. In their view, the potential upside of watching your opponent melt down is greater than the risk of tripping up. If you do implode, you still will have two months where the other guy can mess up.
Such logic shook up the race this week. It's why we are on track for a debate on June 27. And it's why I will be watching—crouched in a fetal position and covering my eyes.
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