Were Israel forced by Biden to abandon its campaign against Hamas, it would be putting its population at risk from future attacks from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah. It would signal utter helplessness and vulnerability. Hamas will have shown that it can pull off any attack on Israel, no matter how ghastly, and as long as it digs in under major population centers, it can survive. 

If, instead, Israel were to go ahead with a major assault on Rafah now, it would help reestablish momentum in the war, and demonstrate that Israel is dedicated to routing out Hamas and is willing to do so at the risk of a loss in U.S. support. It would also send a powerful signal to Iran, for the future, that Israel is willing to take care of business even without support of the U.S.

More fundamentally, this is a crucial test of Israel’s national identity. Israel takes a lot of pride in being a sovereign nation. Israelis argue that the lesson of the Holocaust was that Jews cannot depend on others to rescue them, that they have to be prepared to fight for their survival even if they have to do so alone. Sacrificing Jewish security out of fear of reprimand from Joe Biden would seriously undermine this vision of Israel.