Considering Republicans’ struggle in presidential cycles, Nevada was the only state not rated as a Toss-up by Inside Elections up to this point. While the GOP won big races in 2022 and 2014, former Sen. Dean Heller was the last Republican to win statewide in Nevada in a presidential cycle, and that was back in 2012. The GOP presidential nominee hasn’t won the Silver State since President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.

But Biden won Nevada by just 2.4 points against an unpopular incumbent and is at significant risk of losing Nevada in November as the unpopular incumbent himself. Considering the current president’s struggle generally and with Hispanic voters specifically, Biden doesn’t have a distinguishable advantage in Nevada. 

Inside Elections is therefore changing Nevada’s rating in the presidential race from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.