NEW: Q1 GDP Only 1.6%

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. ...


The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter (table 4). The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 3.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 3.7 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent. ...

Real disposable personal income increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent.

Ed Morrissey

This is not good news, not for Joe Biden or anyone else. Consumer spending allowed this to remain in positive turf, but even that dropped from a 3.3% increase in 2023Q4 to 2.5% in Q1. The biggest hit appears to be exports, which fell from 5.1% in Q4 (amd 5.3% in Q3) to 0.9% in Q1. Import sales increased at their highest level in two years, 7.2%. Also notable: government spending hit its lowest mark in almost two years, and federal spending actually declined in Q1 (-0.2%). Expect that to change fast. 

Final sales of domestic product outpaced overall GDP slightly, at 2.0%. That looks like an inventory drain, albeit mild, that may prompt a bit more activity in the next quarter for restocking. 

I'll be headlining more analyses of this report as we go along today. 

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