The "clarity window" for the West is, however, wide open right now. Israel has absolute justice on its side —now and for a few more days or perhaps a couple of weeks (at best) because the world moves on quickly and forgets even faster. Once "stability" returns the pressure on Israel to de-escalate will grow and grow by actors who just want to get "back to normal," as though that is actually possible.

If Israel does not strike back now, it seems very likely it won’t strike back until it is either too late to do so or at least do so confident that a large portion of its friends in the West will applaud and, if not applaud, at least grudgingly acknowledge that it was obliged to do so.

The other new factor: The faith in the ability of high-tech intelligence capabilities to warn Israel of deadly attacks and thus to allow it to preempt those attacks is gone after the surprise of 10/7. Yes, warning was given this past weekend. Will it be the next time? Could Iran achieve strategic surprise in the way Hamas achieved tactical surprise on 10/7?

What is clear beyond any doubt that an Israel that does not respond soon with a devastating counter-strike is an Israel that will have forfeited deterrence against attacks of at least equal intensity. At a moment when the United States and the United Kingdom are both led by very weak governments beset by electoral considerations, Israel has to decide for itself: Will it be cowed?