This is essentially the same as the situation we saw in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2022–23: A pre-Roe law with minimal exceptions was reinstated by Dobbs, the state’s elected government was divided between a Democratic governor and a Republican legislature and did nothing, and the voters ended up adopting a broad pro-abortion proposition in a referendum in Michigan and turning over control of the Wisconsin supreme court to Democrats. Pro-lifers were leaderless and disorganized, pursued no coherent strategy, and got saddled with the worst of all worlds.

Can Arizona’s famously dysfunctional post-Ducey GOP do better? This will be a test of pro-life realism. Voters are unlikely to be at all sympathetic to just standing pat on a mid-19th-century law with no exceptions. Ideally, the legislature would make a counteroffer. Republicans narrowly control the state legislature, with a 16–14 majority in the state senate and a 31–29 majority in the state assembly. If united during a legislative session, they could pass revisions to send to Governor Katie Hobbs’s desk and dare her to veto them — which, as a creature of the pro-abortion lobby and party, she would likely feel bound to do. Those revisions could include popular exceptions for rape and incest. They might allow earlier abortions — at least up to six weeks and maybe (if unwilling to defend a six-week ban) to a later point (15 weeks is not much of a ban and would not be my preference, but it would be better than nothing). By vetoing the exceptions, Hobbs would have to make clear that she, and not pro-lifers, is the one holding an extreme and unyielding position.