How Iran is Dangerously Rational

The world has changed dramatically since 2020. The war in Ukraine has pushed Iran closer to Russia, building on already strong ties forged in the defense of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in that country’s brutal civil war. Increasing energy exports overland to China have given Tehran economic breathing space, too. 

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Before October 7, as Israel normalized ties with Arab states, coalescing around the notion that the region’s real threat came from Tehran not Tel Aviv, Iran was in real danger of isolation. The war in Gaza has changed that, wrestling back the narrative to Tehran’s dubious claim to stand for the oppressed peoples of the Middle East (read Palestine), and allowing the Islamic Republic to flex its muscles in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza with brutal consequences. Iranian diplomats at Davos were cock-a-hoop with their rediscovered influence across the Middle East, elated at the fact that Arab leaders now found themselves on the wrong side of the street.

Iran may well feel emboldened by deepening ties with Beijing and Moscow. It might also be buoyed by having recaptured the hearts and minds of Arab nations, and it might possibly be more secure at home, having viciously beaten the protest movement into submission. 

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