It’s feeling a little like 1938.  There’s not a great power shooting war going on, but you can smell one coming.  There’s the Ukraine war, which involves Russia (kindasorta a great power, but not really nowadays), and which seems to fill the role that the Spanish Civil War played in the 1930s – a testing ground for new technologies and tactics, and an indication of just how destructive, and expensive, modern war can be, but not a main event.

Meanwhile, the main antagonists – this time around, that’s the United States and the People’s Republic of China – are arming up, seeking allies, and thinking strategy and tactics.