And yes, I understand that it’s eight months before the election. And yes, I also understand that, at some point in those eight months, Trump stands a pretty good chance of becoming a convicted felon, either on the politically rigged indictments against him or on the one his own behavior earned (and would have earned from a non-politically interested prosecutor), namely, the federal indictment in Florida for misappropriation of classified material and obstruction of justice.

Given all that, Trump is still going to beat Biden.

How do I know? For the same reasons the New York Times, of all things, knows. Here’s the headline of its story: “No Matter Race, Age or Gender, More Voters Say Trump’s Policies Helped Than Biden’s.” Here’s the subhead: “Times/Siena polls highlight how comparatively well-regarded Donald J. Trump’s policies are, even by groups that were affected by policies that Democrats hope will be motivating issues in 2024.”