Tone is obviously one factor. The more Trump emphasizes winning through success and bringing people into the fold as opposed to driving people out of it and embarking on a mission of revenge, the better. Speaking seriously on issues like abortion and IVF matters. But the vice presidential choice has to be front of mind as well. If there’s one message to take away from Haley’s speech announcing her campaign’s suspension, it was: don’t pick Vivek, or anybody like him. Trump will have to weigh his tendency toward wanting to pick someone who stands as their own man or woman, and presumably the inheritor of the leading candidate for 2028, against the satisfaction of picking a Mini-Me. 

What’s clear now is that there was no path for Haley within the Republican nomination once Ron DeSantis left the field. She needed him in the race to keep Trump’s totals lower and have any shot at states where she polled in the forties. It speaks again to the nature of the new populist coalition that makes up the GOP’s primary electorate that even a late-game injection of serious donor money couldn’t make a serious difference.