The United States is arguably more politically polarized and wearier of maintaining the global security system than at any time since the end of the Cold War.  National debt stands at a whopping $34 trillion, inflation lingers, the southern border is uncontrolled, and a poll last fall showed that 78 percent of Americans thought the country was moving in the wrong direction. In foreign affairs, seemingly “never-ending wars,” the possible failure of U.S. policy in Ukraine, and the potentially widening Israel–Hamas war have cast into doubt the course the country has been on for the past three decades. As the next presidential election moves into high gear, the country’s leadership urgently needs to articulate a path to recovery, at home and abroad. 

As with any such effort, the first step is to admit that one has a problem—or more than one. First, American elites remain in thrall to economic and political assumptions that no longer reflect reality. This is in part because, with the fall of the Berlin Wall more than three decades ago, pragmatism and careful risk assessment gave way to faith that the “end of history” had validated our assumptions about economics and politics. On economic policy, both government and business disregarded fundamental tenets of national security, facilitating an unprecedented transfer of American technology, know-how, and research base to Communist China on the flawed premise that trade and development would make it become more pluralist and democratic.

After the Cold War, American foreign policy also lost much of its commonsense restraint and orientation toward the national interest. With the implosion of the Soviet Union, the U.S. could act unilaterally with relative impunity, but it failed to develop a proper sense of restraint about whether, when, and how it should act. The successful Cold War strategy gave way to projects of breathtaking scope, aimed at transforming entire cultures through state-building. These imprecise goals, framed in concepts like the Global War on Terror (though after 9/11 America was obviously justified in seeking to respond), committed the country to two decades of warfare that drained our resources and sapped our political will. 

The U.S. needs to focus in three key areas if it is to achieve national renewal. First, our political leaders must weigh all policy choices in terms of how they serve American citizens. In an empire, elites govern the citizens; in a republic, they govern on the citizens’ behalf. This means that we must put the welfare of Americans and our national security priorities at the center of our economic decision making. Consequently, when it comes to national security, we must on-shore our critical manufacturing and arrange it so that other supply chains are located in friendly countries. The United States urgently needs to rebuild its manufacturing base, for without it, the country will lack the wherewithal to support its military in the event of war. This should be the leading project for Congress and the next administration.