When your “short, sharp war” turns, as almost all of them do, into a long slog - as we are seeing in Ukraine - there are two things that will lead a nation to victory or defeat; mass and will.

Both of those can help a nation overcome bad geography or even suboptimal leadership. While “will” can be hard to measure as it is so closely tied to the soft sciences of culture and psychology, the “mass” part is a bit easier to measure.

Mass can be your population reserves or industrial capacity. If you have both, then you are in really great shape. Combine them with a strong national will - will that can absorb casualties, deprivation, and setbacks yet still fight - and unless you face an enemy of unsurmountable size greater than you, the odds of your nation’s success at war are not guaranteed, but they are the safe bet.

Let’s look at the industrial capacity part of mass, the part that demonstrates a nation’s ability to arm and sustain the fight outside the first few days/weeks/months or whatever length of time their unrealistically optimistic Operational Plan calls for.