Before the attack, the US administration had told the Iranians that they wanted to return to the situation of pre-October 7. “Nobody’s looking for a conflict with Iran,” reassured the White House spokesman John Kirby, after the US struck Iranian munitions dumps in Syria in October. “No intention nor desire to engage in further hostilities,” added defense secretary Lloyd Austin. The Iranians appear to have interpreted such statements as invitations to continue their attacks. Kirby was similarly mild in his comments following the Tower 22 attack: “We are not interested in a broader conflict in the region, we’re not looking for another war.”

Ironically, Biden’s strategy of doing his utmost to avoid conflict with Iran may result in the US striking Iran directly. If the president had been more forceful when American bases were first attacked, it probably would never have come to this.