With the New Hampshire primary now in the rearview mirror, it appears nearly certain that former President Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee for a third time. While Trump has a chance to win the election in November due to Joe Biden’s spectacular incompetence, misgovernance, and tone-deaf policies, Trump could lose. The problem for him is the significant number of Republicans, conservatives, and independents who will refuse to vote for him. They won’t vote for Biden, either, but if enough of them refrain from voting for Trump, he will lose.

The “significant number” of potential Trump voters that I am referring to was quantified by a report in the Wall Street Journal: 15 percent of Republican participants in the Iowa caucus tell pollsters they will not vote for Trump; 21 percent of Republicans who voted in the New Hampshire primary say they won’t vote for Trump. The former president lost 9 percent of the Republican vote in 2020 and lost that election, so today’s higher percentage of disaffected Republicans is ominous. A Republican victory in 2024 should be a shoo-in due to Biden’s ruthless surge to the left and his vile slander of MAGA patriots as “extremists” and the current Republican Party as “a threat to this country.” However, the large number of Never Trumpers on the right may snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[While I’m sympathetic to the argument, I’d be leery about reaching conclusions about ‘never-[X]ers’ in the middle of a contested primary. This level of refuseniks is somewhat natural at this stage; the unity phase usually comes later in the cycle, depending on when the nomination actually gets clinched. Biden may have the same problem, especially with progressives being so performatively angry over his policy regarding Israel and Hamas. Those voters will likely come home, and that may be true of many of the voters Hendrickson assumes will not. It’s clearly a major risk for Trump in November, but it may not be as much of a problem as an inability to appeal to independents, especially among women. — Ed]