The laser will terminate whatever is left of force projection. The moment laser weapons become capable of protecting an aircraft carrier, the carrier’s weapons—the planes it carries—become irrelevant. The fastest US fighter, the F-15 Eagle maxes out at 4 miles per second, almost 40,000 times slower than a laser weapon.

But what about stealth? Only slightly slower than the Eagle, the F-22 Raptor has stealth capability as do several other U.S. fighters as well as the B-2 bomber. Alas stealth technology is already vulnerable to certain advanced radar. AI-driven detection systems will make it more vulnerable yet. To evade the AI-based detection systems on the horizon an aircraft would need to emit zero detectable signals of any sort, which is essentially impossible.

The airplane is a missile with a pilot. Neither will survive the era of energy weapons.

Our navy is about about to become indefensible. If laser weapons make our navy defensible again, our air force will be indefensible. Without an air force, or a navy to carry it forward, the era of force projection is over.

We appear to be on the cusp of an era in which the defense in warfare will be so superior to the offense that actual conquest of any distant nation will be implausible, far too costly in blood and treasure to be part of any sane strategy.

[I find this fascinating, and Richard’s series on force projection overall too. I hadn’t contemplated the ways in which energy weapons would transform these theaters. He has more to come as well. — Ed]