If these results indicate the long odds Haley confronts win the primary, however, they also signal some of the structural challenges that Trump may face in a general election. His win over Haley was decisive but not overwhelming. And some of the data from exit polls suggest that a significant portion of Haley’s vote does not come simply from otherwise-Democratic voters who decided to vote in the New Hampshire primary this year. More than 80 percent of the electorate had voted in a Republican primary before, and Haley won 40 percent of these voters. Throughout the primary, Trump has tried to position himself as the de facto incumbent and has been treated that way by many Republicans. An “incumbent” getting only 60 percent of the vote from past Republican primary voters wouldn’t seem to be operating from a position of strength.

Even the topline results might have ominous hints for the GOP. When the incumbent Republican president George H. W. Bush scored a 16-point win over Patrick Buchanan (53 percent–37 percent) in the 1992 primary, the New York Times termed it a “less-than-impressive victory” and reported that Buchanan had won independents. Like Trump in the 2024 primary, Bush in 1992 relied on the votes of locked-in Republicans to make up for a weaker standing with independents. Bush won, but Buchanan’s showing in the primaries indicated deep vulnerabilities in the Republican coalition. The Democrats went on to win the White House that year.

[This is a fair point, and one that the GOP will eventually have to confront. Both parties have increasingly relied on base-turnout strategies rather than tent-growing, but Trump’s personal unpopularity outside of his base may force that crisis sooner for the GOP. Unlike Fred, I don’t think Trump underperformed his polling — he finished within a point of the RCP average in NH — but Fred’s correct that Trump’s winning in the primaries with a strategy that is unlikely to work in a general election. — Ed]