A The Economist/YouGov poll taken January 7-9 showed just 45 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents believed that Trump would become the Republican nominee. The Biden campaign claimed pre-Iowa caucus that a majority of undecided voters did not grok that Trump would win. “Once you get to that head-to-head,” a senior Biden campaign official told CNN, “the dynamics change. The world is different.”

Biden needs that hopeful spin to become reality, since up until this point in the 2024 campaign he has persistently lagged Trump among the bloc that decides most presidential races: independents. Trump squeaked out a 43-42 percent victory over Hillary Clinton among independents and third-party voters in November 2016, after which his approval rate from the group stayed mired in the 30s for most of his presidency, culminating in a 52-43 percent loss to Biden in 2020. But within his first six months in the White House, Biden’s support among independents crashed from 61 percent to 34 percent, where it has been languishing ever since.

[They may end up staying home, which will hurt Biden, or voting third party, which won’t be good for Biden either. But we have nine-plus months to go, so we’ll see whether either incumbent can make any inroads among the unaffiliateds. — Ed]