So, why are Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley still staying in the race? Well, because in the words of the late Donald Rumsfeld, we have the known knowns, the known unknowns, and the unknown unknowns. ….

The known unknowns involve the Trump legal cases. Right now, we have no idea how the Fani Willis drama will shake up the Georgia RICO case. The special prosecutor, Jack Smith, was denied a fast-track ruling by the Supreme Court, which now slows, or stalls out, the federal case in Washington D.C. If Donald Trump is convicted, will that affect his poll numbers in swing states or nationally? It’s not affecting his numbers for the Republican nomination, but if a conviction tanks his numbers nationally, both DeSantis and Haley want to be the next person up.

And then there are the unknown unknowns. We have zero idea about Trump’s current state of health, or what threats there are against him, or if the incredibly thin legal theories will actually keep him off state ballots. No one can predict a “black swan event,” and if one occurs, then the Republican Party will need a contingency plan. We also don’t know if Joe Biden is going to live through November. One false step on a flight of stairs, and Kamala Harris is taking the oath of office – and that creates an entirely new situation for the Republican Party.

[Deanna’s point about the “black swan” event of 2020 is well taken. I made the same point on one of our recent podcasts. Trump will turn 78 next year, and while his vitality is still very much in evidence, it’s not guaranteed to stay that way in the long term — especially with the stress of a campaign and multiple court cases. It won’t hurt to keep going through at least Super Tuesday, or even really to the end of the primary contests, except that their funding will run out if either or both of them don’t start winning a state here and there. — Ed]