While it’s always possible that Iowa Republicans will surprise us, and the frigid weather and potential crossover voters represent new variables, it appears extremely likely that Donald Trump will win tonight’s Iowa Caucus, and win it by a large margin. The dynamic that is visible in that last Des Moines Register poll is the same one that has been at work in the entire primary: About half the party wants to renominate Trump. The rest is split among DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and a few other options. If DeSantis, Haley, or anybody else wanted to beat Trump, they needed to unify that non-Trump vote, and it is diverse with disparate, sometimes contradictory desires.

The MAGA movement is heavily driven by Americans who feel like they don’t recognize their country anymore. Yes, lots of Americans may romanticize their past. They probably mix up better days for the country with the better days for themselves, before the back pain, groaning knees, and the half-dozen pills the doctor told them they had to take every morning. A lot of older Americans feel ignored and devalued, shunted aside and forgotten.

Unsurprisingly, the slogan “Make America Great Again” is going to resonate with people who feel like everything from the state of the country to the state of their personal lives used to be great, or at least better, but has declined in recent years or decades.

[Read the whole essay, especially the anecdote with Jim’s driver that I find very revealing — and not just about MAGA, to be fair, but politics in general. It explains why Joe Biden can successfully claim to represent ‘decency,’ Bernie Sanders can claim leadership of a youth movement, and Hillary can claim competency. Voters invest their candidates with these qualities whether they have them or not. This is not a new phenomenon, but the self-delusion seems to be getting worse. — Ed]